Coordination analysis of China’s provincial digital economy and economic dual circulation under the new development pattern
新发展格局下中国省域数字经济与经济双循环协调分析

摘要

目的 数字经济是世界经济新的主要形态，构建“经济双循环”的新发展格局是我国的重大战略选择，两者之间存在明显的互推作用。分析两者之间的协同发展现状，为加快构建新发展格局、扩大数字经济规模提供理论支撑。方法 利用熵权法测算2013-2020年我国30个省市（除西藏、港澳台地区外）的数字经济指数、经济内循环指数与经济外循环指数，并运用莫兰指数方法对数字经济指数进行空间相关性分析。同时，基于耦合协调度模型计算数字经济、经济内循环与经济外循环三者的耦合度和耦合协调度。结论 我国数字经济区域发展不平衡，各省市间存在空间正相关性；经济内循环发展水平有待提高，外循环发展水平地区差异大；数字经济、经济内循环与经济外循环之间具有良性耦合关系但协调性差，且外循环发展水平滞后是阻碍三者协同发展的重要因素。

Abstract

Objective Digital economy is a new major form of world economy, and it is a major strategic choice for China to construct a new development pattern of "double economic cycle", and there are obvious mutual pushing effects between the two. The current situation of collaborative development between the two is analyzed to provide theoretical support for accelerating the construction of a new development pattern and expanding the scale of the digital economy. Method The entropy weight method is used to measure the digital economy index, economic inner cycle index and economic outer cycle index of 30 provinces and cities in China (except Tibet, Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan) from 2013 to 2020. The Moran index method is used to analyze the spatial correlation of the national digital economy index. Therefore, the coupling degree and coupling coordination degree of digital economy, economic inner circulation and economic outer circulation calculated based on the coupling coordination degree model.
Conclusion   The results show that the regional development of digital economy in China is unbalanced, and there is a positive spatial correlation among provinces and cities. The development level of economic inner circulation needs to be improved, and the development level of outer circulation varies greatly among regions. Digital economy, economic inner cycle and economic outer cycle have a good coupling relationship but poor coordination, and the lagging development level of the outer cycle is an important factor hindering the coordinated development of the three.