Threshold effect of social participation: influence mechanism of migratory birds in Hainan
社会参与的阈值效应：海南候鸟老人孤独感的影响机制研究

摘要

本研究以海南自贸港建设为背景，探讨候鸟老人孤独感与社会参与、社会支持的关联机制。通过对三亚市608名候鸟老人的分层抽样调查，采用有序逻辑回归模型分析发现：社会参与水平显著影响孤独感，但存在“质量-文化适配”特征，高频参与低质量活动（如棋牌娱乐）可能加剧高学历群体的孤独风险；教育程度通过数字素养中介作用形成双重排斥，低学历者孤独感发生率是高学历群体的2.89倍；社会支持的直接效应不显著，但其网络断裂性削弱参与效益，短期迁徙者（<1年）因社会资本“年度清零”，参与效能降低42%。研究揭示候鸟老人心理健康危机的结构性矛盾：语言隔阂、季节性服务失衡与制度性支持缺位导致“参与悖论”。建议构建分层社区活动体系，实施“数字赋能+文化适配”干预策略，并创新跨周期社会支持政策，以缓解流动老龄化引发的心理健康风险，为自贸港流动人口治理提供实证依据。

Abstract

Against the backdrop of Hainan Free Trade Port development, this study investigates the mechanisms linking loneliness among seasonal elderly migrants to their social participation and social support. Utilizing stratified sampling data from 608 elderly migrants in Sanya, an ordered logistic regression analysis revealed the following: (1) Social participation significantly affects loneliness but exhibits a "quality-culture mismatch" effect. High-frequency engagement in low-quality activities (e.g., recreational card games) may increase loneliness risks among highly educated individuals. (2) Educational attainment amplifies dual exclusion through digital literacy disparities, with low-educated groups experiencing 2.89 times higher loneliness prevalence than their highly educated counterparts. (3) While social support lacks direct significance, its fragmented networks diminish participation efficacy; short-term migrants (<1 year) suffer a 42% reduction in participation benefits due to the "annual depletion" of social capital. The study identifies structural contradictions underlying mental health challenges: language barriers, seasonal service gaps, and institutional support deficiencies collectively create a "participation paradox." Recommendations include establishing tiered community engagement systems, implementing "digital empowerment + culturally adaptive" interventions, and innovating cross-cyclical support policies to mitigate mental health risks associated with mobile aging, offering empirical insights for managing transient populations in free trade port contexts.