摘要
目的 探究我国老龄经济发展的系统机制，为应对人口老龄化挑战提供理论支撑和政策参考。方法 将老龄经济能力多维结构化于复杂系统动态理论框架下，采用系统动力学模型，从多角度分析多因素在老龄经济发展中的动态交互作用。通过文献分析、数据收集及模型构建，探讨老龄经济的关键影响因素及其动态关系，结合系统仿真深入分析各子系统的互动机制和灵敏度，并针对我国老龄经济进行策略仿真和评估。结果 识别了影响老龄经济能力的关键因素及其动态作用路径：市场环境中劳动力优化>高品质服务>数字化转型；产业发展中消费转型>地域差异；消费主体中遗产规划最突出。仿真显示，产业发展子系统驱动力最强。结论 提升老龄经济能力需采取综合策略协同政策、产业、个体举措，依托社会支持网络构建可持续老龄经济体系。未来加强实证深化。
关键词： 老龄经济；社会支持网络；结构方程模型；系统动力学
Abstract
Objective To explore the systemic mechanisms of the development of my country's aging economy and provide theoretical support and policy references for addressing the challenges of an aging population. Methods We structured aging economic capabilities in a multidimensional manner within the framework of complex system dynamics theory. Using a system dynamics model, we analyzed the dynamic interactions of multiple factors in the development of the aging economy from multiple perspectives. Through literature analysis, data collection, and model construction, we explored the key influencing factors of the aging economy and their dynamic relationships. Using system simulation, we deeply analyzed the interaction mechanisms and sensitivities of each subsystem. We also conducted strategy simulations and evaluations for my country's aging economy. Results Key factors influencing aging economic capabilities and their dynamic pathways were identified: labor optimization > high-quality services > digital transformation in the market environment; consumption transformation > regional differences in industrial development; and legacy planning was the most prominent driver among consumers. Simulations revealed that the industrial development subsystem had the strongest driving force. Conclusion Improving aging economic capabilities requires a comprehensive strategy that coordinates policy, industry, and individual initiatives, building a sustainable aging economic system based on social support networks. Further empirical research is needed in the future.
Key words： Aging economy; Social support network; Structural equation model; System dynamics
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