The promoting effect of consumption on industrial upgrading: based on threshold effect analysis
消费对产业升级的促进作用—基于门槛效应分析

摘要

产业升级是经济发展趋势，而作为热点和现象的消费在其发展过程中无疑对产业升级产生了促进作用，本文通过理论分析和研究分析，以全国31个省份为研究样本，收集了居民消费水平和第三产业增加值占GDP比重及相关控制变量数据，发现消费的发展确实对产业升级起到了显著的作用，这一结果通过了内生性和稳健性检验，在控制固定效应情况下，发现消费对产业升级还存在门槛效应，将居民消费水平作为门槛变量发现，在居民消费水平三个不同区间，对产业升级的促进作用存在不同，总体来看消费的促进作用是递减的，此外，基于消费对产业升级的作用本文还提出了相关措施和政策建议以更好地把握消费从而促进产业升级。

Abstract

Industrial upgrading is a trend in economic development, and consumption, as a hot topic and phenomenon, undoubtedly promotes industrial upgrading in its development process. Through theoretical analysis and research analysis, this article takes 31 provinces in China as research samples, collects residents' consumption levels and the proportion of added value of the tertiary industry to GDP Based on the proportion and related control variable data, it was found that the development of consumption does play a significant role in industrial upgrading. This result passed endogeneity and robustness tests. Under the control of fixed effects, it was found that there is still a threshold effect of consumption on industrial upgrading. Using household consumption level as the threshold variable, it was found that the promotion effect of consumption on industrial upgrading varies in the three different intervals of household consumption level. Overall, the promotion effect of consumption is decreasing. In addition, based on the role of consumption in industrial upgrading, this article also proposes relevant measures and policy recommendations to better grasp consumption and promote industrial upgrading.