Quarterly evidence of digital technology driving the expansion of financial inclusion——An exploratory analysis based on China’s payment system and micro- and small business loan data
数字技术驱动普惠金融扩张的季度证据——基于中国支付体系与小微贷款数据的探索性分析

摘要

在数字金融高质量发展成为金融监管重点的背景下，本文基于中国人民银行2022年第一季度至2024年第四季度支付体系运行数据、金融机构贷款投向统计报告以及国家金融监督管理总局监管指标数据，构建季度层面的探索性实证模型，考察移动支付扩张与普惠小微贷款增长之间的关系。结果显示：移动支付金额与普惠小微贷款余额在样本期内呈现明显同步上升趋势。在对数模型中，控制线性时间趋势后，移动支付金额的弹性系数为0.231，并在1%水平显著，说明支付数字化深化与普惠信贷扩张之间存在稳定正相关。增长率模型中，移动支付金额增长的系数为0.241，同样在1%水平显著；但移动支付笔数在加入时间趋势后不再显著，表明真正发挥作用的更可能是高价值支付场景和数据沉淀，而不只是交易频次扩张。

Abstract

Against the backdrop of high-quality development of digital finance becoming a key regulatory priority, this paper constructs an exploratory quarterly empirical model based on data from the People’s Bank of China on the operation of the payment system from the first quarter of 2022 to the fourth quarter of 2024, statistical reports on the allocation of financial institutions’ loans, and regulatory indicator data released by the National Financial Regulatory Administration, in order to examine the relationship between the expansion of mobile payments and the growth of inclusive loans to micro and small enterprises. The results show that, first, mobile payment transaction value and the balance of inclusive micro and small business loans exhibited a clear synchronous upward trend during the sample period. Second, in the logarithmic model, after controlling for a linear time trend, the elasticity coefficient of mobile payment transaction value is 0.231 and is significant at the 1% level, indicating a stable positive correlation between the deepening of payment digitalization and the expansion of inclusive credit. Third, in the growth-rate model, the coefficient of mobile payment transaction value growth is 0.241, which is also significant at the 1% level. However, the number of mobile payment transactions becomes insignificant after the inclusion of the time trend, suggesting that what truly matters is more likely to be high-value payment scenarios and data accumulation, rather than merely an increase in transaction frequency.